JWST telemetry combined with active coronagraphy: inferring raw contrast predictions for exoplanet imaging with future large space observatory

NASA’s Habitable Worlds Observatory (HWO) aims to detect and study Earth-like exoplanets, which will require maintaining some wavefront error mode at a picometric stability over hours. While the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) achieves sub-nanometer stability, it lacks the advanced coronagraphy and active wavefront control needed for direct imaging of such planets. To better understand the technology gap to be bridged by HWO, we combine JWST’s segments phasing in-flight data, a modern Apodized Pupil Lyot Coronagraph (APLC) design, and wavefront control techniques from the Roman Space Telescope’s Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) to simulate residual wavefront errors under realistic conditions. We evaluate different system designs, including deformable mirror and sensor configurations, to determine achievable contrast levels. The pairing these simulations with JWST’s stability measurements provides insight of the current technological capabilities for Earth-like planet imaging.