Multispectral pre-fire hazard screening with an exponentially tilted L₁ surrogate: loss-centered analysis on a fixed satellite scaffold

This paper studies how a miss-sensitive objective alters the operating behavior of a compact satellite-sequence model for short-lead ignition screening on a fixed Indonesian FIRMS-Landsat scaffold. The analysis centers the exponentially tilted L1 family through gradient asymmetry, curvature, conditional risk, and threshold effects under severe class imbalance. Results show no universal best loss: BCE-style objectives lead on ranking and precision, focal loss yields the best F1, and tilted L1 is most useful in FN-averse alerting regimes where missed ignitions are costlier than false alarms. An α-sweep further shows a shift from all-negative behavior to recall-dominant screening, framing tilted L1 as a tunable decision loss rather than a general-purpose probability objective.